Wednesday, 10 March 2010

Are we heading for a National government?

Quite a few political commentators are suggesting that we may be heading for a 1974 situation. I was not old enough to vote in the two general elections in 1974 but even as a school lad I was keenly aware of the dramatic political events of that year. I used to get a lift home from my FE College in Leamington Spa on Friday's -saving my bus fare if I met up with my parents in the Sainbury's at the top of town, getting a free lift home but having to help with the weekly shop! My parents on the journey home were in a state of total shock to learn that the Tories were desperately trying to cling onto power by trying to do a deal with the Liberals. A growing numbers of polls are suggesting the Tories are struggling to get much more than 40% of the vote and Labour appears to be gaining support. The latest polls on a uniform swing might suggest that on a figure of 39/34/17 would mean Labour winning most seats! Interestingly the Tories appear to have been having not so secret talks with the Ulster Unionists. I think however that we are not heading for a minority hung parliament but a very concerning government of National Unity- 1931 style. I think we may, like 1974, have two elections but with an unresolved outcome, leading to calls for a government of 'unity' -which will drive down wages, cutting welfare and unemployment benefits and slashing public services -driving the economy into a 'double dip' economic down turn leading to a massive rise is unemployment, social unrest and violence. The 1931 National Government lasted for 9 years and led to the appeasement of fascism and the growth of Oswald Mosley's British Union of Fascists in the long years of the Great Depression. Votes therefore for candidates on the political left, could mean that Greens, socialists and left wing independents could offer a progressive government the option of a left leaning coalition -French style, rather than a government in the pocket of the city and the bankers.

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